Tensions between India and Pakistan escalated sharply following India’s announcement on Sunday to suspend its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty, a historic agreement regulating the use of the Indus River system.
The move comes after a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir that left 26 tourists dead.
Islamabad has warned that any attempt by India to restrict the flow of water would be considered an “act of war.”
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 after years of World Bank-sponsored negotiations, has long been hailed as a rare diplomatic success between the two nuclear-armed rivals, who have fought multiple wars since gaining independence.
Background: The Attack and Rising Tensions
New Delhi suspended its participation in the treaty following accusations that Pakistan supports cross-border terrorism—an allegation Islamabad denies.
The deadly attack on April 22 prompted Indian outrage, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government seeking immediate retaliatory measures to satisfy public demands for a strong response.
Pakistani officials countered that India’s move violates international law, vowing to respond “with full force” if the water flow is obstructed.
What the Treaty Covers
The 1960 treaty governs the equitable use of six tributaries feeding the Indus River, a lifeline for millions in both countries.
- India controls the three eastern tributaries—the Ravi, Sutlej, and Beas—and retains full rights for irrigation and power generation.
- Pakistan relies heavily on the western tributaries—the Chenab, Jhelum, and the Indus River—for agriculture and drinking water, although India is permitted limited non-consumptive use.
Despite tensions, water flows have largely continued uninterrupted, even during past conflicts.
Immediate and Long-Term Impact
Experts on both sides agree that the suspension will have limited immediate practical effects.
Himanshu Thakkar, coordinator of the South Asia Network on Dams, Rivers and People, noted:
“In the short term, there may not be any immediate practical impact. Building diversion infrastructure takes years, often more than a decade.”
Similarly, Pakistani water expert Hassan Abbas said that India cannot stop the flow of these rivers immediately due to technical and economic challenges.
However, the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanisms, which have helped prevent major escalations in the past, have already been stalled for years, according to Thakkar.
Why India Suspended Participation
According to Pravin Dhunthi of the International Crisis Group, India’s decision appears to be a symbolic gesture aimed at demonstrating swift retaliation.
“The public was demanding retaliation, but military action takes time,” Dhunthi said. “Suspending the treaty offers an immediate response the public can understand.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has previously invoked the symbolism of water in response to cross-border attacks, famously stating in 2016:
“Blood and water cannot flow together.”
Strategic and Environmental Risks
India justified its move by citing “fundamental changes in circumstances,” including population growth and the urgent need for clean energy. However, building additional dams in the mountainous regions remains a long-term and challenging task.
Climate change, glacial melting in the Himalayas, and shifting weather patterns are making water resources even more critical for the future.
Moreover, The Dawn, a leading Pakistani newspaper, warned that India’s decision could set a dangerous precedent.
It noted that China controls the headwaters of the Brahmaputra River, a major river vital to northeast India. Unilateral actions by India could invite similar responses from Beijing in the future.
“Suspending the treaty and acting unilaterally sets a precedent that could one day be used against India,” The Dawn editorialized.
Outlook
While the immediate water flows are unlikely to change drastically, the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty underscores the deepening mistrust between India and Pakistan.
With climate change intensifying resource competition, experts warn that future conflicts over water may become even more dangerous and harder to resolve.
