OPEC+ is set to ramp up oil production, with plans to add up to 2.2 million barrels per day back to the global market by November, according to five sources within the group.

The shift comes as Saudi Arabia, the group’s leading member, aims to penalize countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan for consistently exceeding their output quotas.

The decision follows a surprising move in April when OPEC+ agreed to a larger-than-expected production increase for May, despite flagging oil prices and waning demand. Industry insiders say Riyadh is no longer willing to shoulder the burden of stabilizing the market, and is instead pivoting to reclaim market share — a stark departure from its past strategy of deep output cuts.

The policy shift arrives just days ahead of a scheduled visit by U.S. President Donald Trump to Saudi Arabia, where he is expected to discuss an arms deal and a potential nuclear agreement. Trump has repeatedly called on OPEC+ to boost output in an effort to curb high gasoline prices and offset domestic inflation, worsened by ongoing trade tensions.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries along with allies such as Russia, is currently withholding nearly five million barrels per day from the market — roughly 5% of global supply. These cuts, implemented since 2022, are set to remain in place until the end of 2026, although recent decisions indicate a faster rollback.

In December, the group agreed to gradually phase out a voluntary portion of its cuts — totaling 2.2 million barrels per day — by September 2026. However, in April, it decided to speed up the timeline, starting with a major production hike in May. On Saturday, another significant increase was approved for June, bringing total planned additions over three months to nearly one million barrels per day.

According to sources, another 411,000 barrels per day could be added in July, with further hikes in August through October if compliance issues persist. Saudi Arabia has issued repeated warnings to members not adhering to quotas and may fully unwind the voluntary cuts by November unless there is marked improvement.

Kazakhstan has openly challenged the group’s production limits. Its energy minister stated last month that national interests would take precedence over OPEC+ agreements. Despite a slight decline in output, the country still surpassed its April quota.

Oil prices plummeted to a four-year low in April — dipping below $60 per barrel — as the market reacted to increased OPEC+ output and fears of a global economic slowdown fueled by Trump’s tariff policies.