Iraq and OPEC+ Eye Swift Oil Output Boost Amid Market Share Push

Ahmed Mohammed 04/07/2025
A worker is seen at the Tawke oil refinery near Zacho in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Photo: AFP / Sabah Arar
A worker is seen at the Tawke oil refinery near Zacho in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Photo: AFP / Sabah Arar

Eight members of OPEC+, including Iraq, are expected to approve an accelerated oil output increase for August as they seek to regain market share, sources from the producer group told Reuters.

“The group is likely to agree to an increase of 411,000 barrels per day for August,” several sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity. This potential boost would mean OPEC+ has raised its supply targets by approximately 1.78 million bpd this year, which equates to about 1.5% of global oil consumption. However, “actual increases have been lower, as some members deliver cuts to offset past overproduction,” sources noted.

The eight producers involved are Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. On Friday, the group brought their meeting forward by one day, although “it was not yet clear if 411,000 bpd would be the final agreement,” one source said.

OPEC+ radically shifted its policy this year after years of output cuts totalling over 5 million bpd. Beginning in April, the eight members started unwinding their most recent cut of 2.2 million bpd, accelerating increases in May, June, and July despite the extra supply weighing on crude prices.

This acceleration followed disputes when some members, including Kazakhstan, produced well above their targets, frustrating others who adhered more closely to agreed cuts. According to a source familiar with data, Kazakhstan’s output “returned to growth last month and matched an all-time high as the Chevron-led Tengiz field ramped up.”

OPEC+, which combines the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, produces about half of the world’s oil and is striving to expand its market share amid increasing competition from countries such as the United States.

As of July, the eight OPEC+ members have made or announced production increases totalling 1.37 million bpd, which accounts for “62% of the production cut of 2.2 million bpd they are unwinding.”

Ahmed Mohammed

04/07/2025