At a Glance

• Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall slightly in 2026.

• Renewable energy growth and the Iran war's oil price shock are behind the drop.

• Researchers warn the decline is not a sustainable solution.

Global fossil fuel emissions are expected to dip in 2026 for the first time since the COVID pandemic, researchers said Tuesday, as the spread of clean energy and an oil price shock from the Iran war cut consumption.

Key Statements and Focus Area

• Friedlingstein on the Decline: "A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution." — Pierre Friedlingstein, Director, Global Carbon Budget Office, University of Exeter.

• Le Quere on the Rebound: A rebound is likely "when the oil tensions go away." — Corinne Le Quere, Climate Change Science Professor, University of East Anglia.

• Focus Area: The Global Carbon Budget report and what a temporary emissions drop means for the 1.5°C goal.

The Global Carbon Budget report, published as nations meet at the COP31 summit in Antalya, projects a 0.4% fall in fossil emissions in 2026, after rising by an average of 0.9% a year over the past decade and hitting a record in 2025.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and soaring crude prices reduced oil use, while solar, wind and electric vehicles are meeting two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand.

Oil emissions are projected to fall 1.9% and gas emissions 0.3%, while coal emissions rise 0.6%. Fossil CO2 emissions are expected to reach 38.2 billion tons.

Including land-use change such as deforestation, total CO2 emissions are projected to rise to 43.3 billion tons from 42.8 billion last year, partly because of peat fires and forest degradation in Southeast Asia linked to this year's strong El Niño.

The remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C stands at 150 billion tons, which would be exhausted in less than four years at current rates.

FYI

Nations agreed in Paris in 2015 to keep warming "well below" 2°C while pursuing 1.5°C.

The UN declared in September that the 1.5°C target would be missed within a few years, so scientists stress cutting fossil emissions quickly to limit the period of overshoot above that level.

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