A senior Turkish delegation is set to visit Baghdad in the coming days to address two pressing issues: Iraq’s deepening water crisis and the stalled oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port.

The visit marks a pivotal moment in Iraqi-Turkish relations, where sovereignty, environmental survival, and economic interdependence converge.

The delegation will include top Turkish officials and aims to negotiate a legal framework that secures both nations’ rights in shared matters—chiefly Iraq’s water quota and oil export arrangements. These discussions follow an earlier visit by Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein to Ankara on October 10, where water management and bilateral cooperation were key topics.

Iraq is grappling with one of its worst droughts in nearly a century. The Ministry of Water Resources warned in July that upstream reductions and climate change have severely depleted water reserves, making 2025 potentially the driest year since 1933. Years of low rainfall and reduced flows from the Tigris and Euphrates, exacerbated by dam projects in Turkey and Iran, have pushed Iraq to the brink of a humanitarian crisis. The country ranks among the five most climate-vulnerable nations globally, according to UN and international assessments.

With limited infrastructure for desalination and groundwater management, Iraq’s options are constrained. Negotiations with Turkey have become essential to securing a fair water share and mitigating the agricultural collapse that has claimed nearly 30% of Iraq’s arable land over the past three decades.

International bodies, including the World Bank, have warned that Iraq’s environmental emergency is now a full-blown development crisis. The country will require an estimated $233 billion in investments by 2040—roughly 6% of its annual GDP—to transition to a sustainable, low-carbon growth model.

Oil remains Iraq’s strongest bargaining chip. The Ceyhan pipeline is vital for exporting Iraqi crude, and Baghdad hopes to leverage its importance to secure water concessions. Iraqi officials aim to link oil export resumption to binding legal guarantees on water flow, transforming bilateral cooperation into a framework of mutual survival.

The upcoming Turkish visit could redefine the trajectory of Iraq-Turkey relations. Whether it results in a breakthrough legal accord or another round of unresolved negotiations, the stakes, economic, environmental, and humanitarian, could not be higher.