At a Glance

• Middle East crude exports rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September.
• Kpler data showed exports reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and September 27–29.
• The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1, compared with a pre-war average of 18 million bpd.
• Oil and gas shipping through the Strait of Hormuz increased even as attacks on commercial vessels continued.

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Middle East crude oil exports rose above pre-war levels on four days during the final week of September, shipping data showed, despite continued attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

Kpler data showed regional crude exports reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day on September 24 and between September 27 and 29.

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Key Statements

“Merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.”

— Marisks shipping intelligence report

“The recent pattern of incidents may not necessarily represent deliberate targeting of individually selected merchant vessels.”

— Marisks

“The possibility that Iranian forces are launching missiles into a predetermined engagement area or ‘kill box’”

— Marisks assessment

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Exports recover despite security risks

Middle East crude exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February 2026, before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28.

Kpler's provisional data showed exports temporarily exceeding that level on four days in the final week of September, reaching as high as 22.5 million bpd.

The seven-day moving average reached 18.5 million bpd on October 1, indicating that regional crude flows had broadly recovered to, and slightly exceeded, the pre-war average.

The figures include shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as exports from terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Hormuz traffic remains significant

Kpler data also showed that shipments of liquefied natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest monthly level since February during September.

Before the war, roughly 125 large commercial vessels passed through the strait each day, including oil tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers and container ships.

The waterway normally handles about one-fifth of global daily crude oil and LNG supplies, making any sustained disruption a major risk to international energy markets.

The shipping figures do not include vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off.

Vessel attacks continue

Despite the recovery in energy flows, maritime security risks remain elevated.

Marisks reported at least seven incidents involving tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. It said the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unidentified projectile on October 1 while operating in the strait, causing a fire.

All crew members were reportedly safe and evacuated.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has also reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden since October 2.

A changing threat

Marisks said the recent incidents may not necessarily indicate deliberate attacks against individually selected commercial vessels.

Instead, the company assessed that missiles could be launched into predetermined areas, with weapons potentially detecting and locking onto radar signatures within those zones.

That would mean that being physically present in an engagement area could itself create a significant risk for commercial shipping, regardless of the vessel's intended destination or ownership.

Data Table

Indicator	Latest figure
Pre-war crude export average	18 million bpd
Peak daily export level in final September week	22.5 million bpd
October 1 seven-day crude average	18.5 million bpd
Oil, products, chemicals & non-gas liquids, seven-day average to Sept. 30	22.4 million bpd
Pre-war large commercial vessels through Hormuz	~125 per day
Share of global crude oil & LNG via Hormuz	~20%
Reported maritime incidents	At least 7

FYI

The latest shipping data suggests that energy flows through the region have proven more resilient than the security environment around them. Crude exports temporarily moved above their pre-war average, while LNG traffic through Hormuz also recovered, indicating that commercial operators continue to use the waterway despite elevated risks.

But the continued attacks introduce a significant uncertainty: the threat may not depend solely on whether a vessel is deliberately targeted. If commercial ships can be exposed simply by entering a missile engagement area, the risk could remain high even as traffic and export volumes recover.

For global energy markets, that creates a delicate balance between physical supply resilience and rising transportation risk. Any sustained closure or major escalation around Hormuz could quickly affect oil and LNG flows, freight costs and international prices, given the strait's importance to global energy trade.

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