LNG Shipments Through Hormuz Rise Despite Security Risks
At a Glance
- S&P Global Energy recorded 19 LNG cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz in September.
- Kpler counted 21 cargoes, both figures marking an increase from June’s 15.
- Several QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels have recently reappeared west of the Strait after periods with limited tracking.
- Analysts say sustaining higher traffic through winter will depend on security conditions and the cost of naval escorts.
LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased in September to their highest monthly level since the US-Israeli war with Iran began, according to shipping and energy-data firms, despite continued security concerns.
S&P Global Energy recorded 19 LNG cargoes exiting the strategic waterway during the month, while Kpler counted 21.
Key Statements
“LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz accelerated in the second half of September.”
— Eric Yep, Senior Principal Analyst, S&P Global Energy
“The key concern is whether LNG transits through Hormuz can be sustained through winter.”
— Eric Yep, Senior Principal Analyst, S&P Global Energy
Higher September Traffic
S&P Global Energy recorded 19 LNG cargoes exiting Hormuz in September, compared with 15 in June. Kpler's data put the September figure at 21 cargoes, also up from 15 in June.
S&P analyst Eric Yep said that if the acceleration seen during the second half of September continues into October, monthly LNG transits could recover to around 25% of pre-war levels.
Qatar-Linked Vessels Reappear
Several QatarEnergy-linked LNG vessels have recently reappeared west of the Strait after periods in which their movements were difficult to track.
Kpler and LSEG ship-tracking data showed three vessels carrying Qatar-linked cargoes reappearing outside the waterway this week, including Al Kharaitiyat, Al Gharrafa and Milaha Qatar.
The Milaha Qatar subsequently arrived off India's western coast and was reported to be offloading at Hazira.
‘Dark Transits’ Complicate Tracking
Some vessels passing through the Strait switch off their Automatic Identification System, known as AIS, making their movements harder to monitor.
That means publicly available vessel-tracking data may not capture every transit, particularly during periods of heightened security risk.
The increase in LNG traffic comes despite continuing uncertainty over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most strategically important energy corridors.
S&P Global Energy said September's 19 cargoes represented the highest monthly level since the conflict began. Kpler recorded a somewhat higher total of 21 cargoes, highlighting differences between commercial shipping-data providers and their tracking methodologies.
Yep said the recent acceleration in traffic could continue into October, potentially bringing monthly transits to about a quarter of pre-war levels.
However, the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. Yep said the key question is whether shipping through Hormuz can be sustained during the winter months.
He pointed to two factors: whether Iran could escalate militarily if increased shipping is perceived as reducing its leverage over the Strait, and whether vessels can continue using US naval escorts despite the high cost.
FYI
The September increase suggests that LNG flows through Hormuz have partially recovered from the sharply disrupted levels seen during the conflict, but the recovery remains well below pre-war traffic. The Strait normally carries roughly one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG supplies, making sustained disruption a potential risk for international energy markets; at the same time, the use of AIS “dark transits” means publicly reported vessel counts may not provide a complete picture of actual traffic.
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